‘Magical thinking’ to believe UK’s AI boom won’t derail climate goals, report warns

A new report from the University of Cambridge has warned that the UK’s push to lead in AI risks derailing its climate targets — unless urgent action is taken.

According to the University’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, the unchecked growth of AI could drive a 25-fold increase in the global tech sector’s energy use by 2040, putting massive strain on power grids and accelerating carbon emissions.

Even the most conservative scenario suggests a five-fold rise over the next 15 years. The report’s authors argue it’s “magical thinking at the highest levels” to assume countries such as the UK can lead in AI while also hitting targets to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Currently, data centres already account for nearly 1.5% of global emissions, but this figure could rise to 8% by 2040, surpassing those from air travel, the report found. In some countries, computing power makes up a larger proportion of energy. In Ireland, for instance, data centres are now responsible for up to 20% of electricity use.

Despite climate pledges from Big Tech, the sector’s emissions are rising fast. Google and Microsoft’s carbon emissions have soared by 51% and 41%, respectively, since 2019, according to the report. However, the paper stresses that the real footprint is likely higher due to Big Tech’s limited transparency, inconsistent emissions accountingand a lack of independent audits to verify the claims of these companies.

“We know the environmental impact of AI will be formidable, but tech giants are deliberately vague about the energy requirements implicit in their aims,” said Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan, the report’s lead author and an AI expert.

“We need to see urgent action from governments to prevent AI from derailing climate goals, not just deferring to tech companies on the promise of economic growth,” he continued.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has rolled out the red carpet for AI firms in recent months.

In January, AI data centre builders Vantage Data Centres, Nscale, and Kyndryl pledged a combined £14bn to build out AI infrastructure across the country. Amazon Web Services (AWS), Blackstone, and CoreWeave are investing billions into sprawling new data centre campuses, while Nvidia recently partnered with local firms to supercharge the UK’s compute capacity.

All told, the UK is positioning itself as a global hub for AI. But the report warns that oversight is lacking. It calls for the UK’s energy authority, Ofgem, to impose strict energy efficiency targets for data centres, and for government departments to tie AI funding to clean power use.

The researchers also criticised the UK’s new AI Energy Council for excluding civil society voices. “The Council currently consists entirely of energy bodies and tech companies,” the report notes.

Professor John Naughton, chair of the Minderoo Centre’s advisory board, called for greater transparency about AI’s impacts. “Every megawatt allocated to AI data centres will be a megawatt unavailable for housing or manufacturing,” he said. “Governments need to be straight with the public about the inevitable energy trade-offs that will come with doubling down on AI as an engine of economic growth.”