The ESPN Fantasy team has been doing mock drafts since late spring. It doesn’t take long for favorites to emerge among the participants, especially when taking part in dozens of drafts with the same people.
Philadelphia Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley, who joined the exclusive 2,000-yard rushing club in 2024 and led all RBs with 22.2 fantasy points per game, is not the top back off the board in drafts this summer. That honor belongs to Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons.
While fantasy managers who haven’t done any practice drafts yet might be surprised to hear that, they might be even more astounded that there are some who prefer Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty over Barkley in the draft.
Two of our drafters are perfect candidates to extol the virtues of Jeanty and Barkley. Liz Loza has been selecting Jeanty ahead of Barkley all along, while Tyler Fulghum has been trumpeting the veteran player as the top running back for 2025, even selecting Barkley with the No. 1 pick when he has had the opportunity.
Which RB do you prefer in 2025: Barkley or Jeanty?
Disaster: Barkley sewed together an undeniably historic season, rushing for a career-high 2,005 yards while converting 33 of 43 targets for an additional 278 yards receiving. Barkley led the position in fantasy output, scoring on a near-weekly basis and averaging 22.2 PPR fantasy points per game. His play was electric. His production was league-winning. And his volume was equally robust.
My sweet (and super-fun) friend Tyler knows how to lean into a good time. Had the timelines synced, he could have put the “Yo” in YOLO before Matthew McConaughey discovered the bongos. But sometimes exercising a dash of temperance is necessary. Like when leveraging the entirety of your first-round capital on a 28-year-old back who carried the ball a position-high 345 times the season prior (and that’s not counting the 91 additional totes in the postseason).
The feels swirling around Barkley’s upcoming season are understandably charged. But the fact is, he’s running toward a regression.
Dating back to 2014, exactly 10 running backs have cleared 300 carries and at least 20 receptions. Over that time span — with the exception of only LeSean McCoy in 2014 — each RB has registered a dip in yards per carry, yards per touch and fantasy points per game. Big-volume backs such as Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry recorded numerous 300-touch seasons, and each time they experienced a decline in efficiency and production the following season. Some players, such as Henry in 2021 and Adrian Peterson in 2016, suffered season-ending injuries on the other side of their high-odometer efforts.
Given the composition of the Eagles’ offense and Barkley’s generational skill set, it’s unlikely that he’ll fully bust. However, it’s equally improbable that he’ll return value based on his ADP and post elite positional stats. Instead, I’d prefer to take my chances on Jeanty’s fresh legs.
Jeanty’s talent is also said to be generational, having drawn lofty comps to everyone from Steven Jackson to Emmitt Smith. Equal parts pin and bowling ball, the Boise State product is a tackle-shedding ace with a low center of gravity and natural hands. A do-it-all RB who led the FBS in forced missed tackles (126), Jeanty is poised to feast in Vegas. The Raiders’ offense has sputtered for the better part of the past decade (or two), but with stability under center and Chip Kelly calling the plays, Jeanty is better positioned than other rookies who have attempted immediate fantasy stardom.
To that point, 18 rookie running backs have finished among the top 10 at the position in total PPR fantasy points since 2012. Ten of those 18 finished seventh or better. Ironically, Barkley was the only back to finish as the virtual game’s RB1 as a rookie (2018) during that span. Here’s to a passing of the torch … but at a better value and with fact-filled context.
Fulghum: My sweet friend Liz (also super-fun!) is known for valuing facts over feelings. She lays out some compelling facts about the probability that Barkley will back up a truly historic fantasy season. That I cannot deny.
Sometimes, though, in life we have to eschew such prudent and objective skepticism and let our imaginations run wild — as Barkley did in 2024.
What if Barkley is able to carry the ball 350-plus times again?
What if the Eagles aren’t as dominant and he plays more snaps in the fourth quarter of games?
What if he’s used a bit more in the passing game (we know he has the chops)?
What if Jalen Hurts doesn’t vulture 15 rushing TDs with the tush push?
I think there’s plenty of reason to lean into that optimism. Barkley should once again be running behind the most dominant offensive line in football, and the Eagles are very likely going to once again be near the top of the league in points scored per game.
Listen, I am also very high on Jeanty, but he is merely an unproven yet promising player at this point. With Barkley, we have proof of concept. We’ve seen it on the field, and it is glorious: 355.3 PPR points (in just 16 games); seven weeks with 25-plus points; five with 30-plus, highlighted by a season-best 46.2 vs. the Rams in Week 12. This player, in this offense, is an absolute hammer.
Keep in mind that Barkley did all of this in his first season with the Eagles. It’s possible his 2024 season was just a prelude to a truly nuclear-ceiling season in 2025. So, don’t be afraid. Don’t let the trends Liz pointed out paralyze you with fear in Round 1. Barkley is once again primed to anchor your fantasy team as a league-winning back. Isn’t that a comfortable feeling? All you have to do is be wise enough to take Barkley over Jeanty — or any other back for that matter — in Round 1.
About The Author
