How Trump Won the 2024 Election

“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king. The palace turns into a circus.”

-Turkish Proverb.

American President Donald Trump’s first term in office was an unprecedented disaster, and his second term is proving to be even worse, so why did Americans vote for him?  Trump’s bid for the presidency in 2016 began with him breaking campaign finance laws, and his first term ended with a coup attempt and an insurrection.  There were lots of reasons to reject Trump in 2016, more in 2020, and even more in 2024, yet despite a clear and compelling body of evidence that should have dissuaded people from supporting him, he managed to win. To understand how he won, we need to explore why voters failed to appreciate the dismal legacy of his first term.

Disinformation is a key part of Trump’s success. Long before voters cast their ballot in 2024, there was more than sufficient documentation to conclude that Trump and the GOP are serial liars. Their mendacity and cynical self-interest should have been evident to voters, yet it wasn’t. During his time in office, Trump and most Republicans demonstrated their contempt for truth and their repeated attempts to subvert democracy in 2018, 2020, and 2021, should have decisively dissuaded voters, yet it didn’t.

Trump used his first four years in office for the corrupt purpose of self-enrichment he put his interests ahead of the interests of Americans. He sows chaos in pursuit of power, and anyone who dares to tell the truth is at risk. Trump inspires violence as a means of control. His politics undermine the freedoms that Americans enjoy, and his presidency is a threat to the Republic. His lies made them sick, and his policies made them poorer. Trump is a stain that will not wash. Despite all the grift and incompetence, Americans chose Trump again in 2024.

The Trump administration’s environmental insults are too numerous to mention. Their antipathy towards wildlife and disregard for human health was evident in the gutting of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Trump’s policy positions amounted to a declaration of war on nature.  His symbiotic relationship with the fossil fuel industry and his decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement is an abdication of responsibility with catastrophic implications. Nonetheless, in 2024, Americans decided that he was their champion and handed him a second term.

Trump’s win represents a seismic shift

“A few people have asked why I vehemently oppose Trump. Let me make this perfectly clear. It’s not about politics. I’ve voted for both parties. It’s about me, as a patriot, rejecting a cheating, lying, racist, treasonous, fascist, and vile man who attacks the free press, and wants to lead the country I love. It’s really that simple.”

It is important to appreciate just how much of a seismic shift Trump represents. He is unlike any president that preceded him.  Past presidents were all imperfect but they summoned “all the gravitas they could muster as appropriate to the job,” Charles Pierce wrote, adding, “And comes now this hopeless, vicious buffoon, and the audience of equally hopeless and vicious buffoons…a man swathed in scandal, with no interest beyond what he can put in his pocket and what he can put over on a universe of suckers, and he does something like this while occupying an office that we gave him, and while endowed with a public trust that he dishonors every day he wakes up in the White House. The scion of a multigenerational criminal enterprise…A vessel for all the worst elements of the American condition. And a cheap, soulless bully besides.”

The repercussions from the outcome of this election will reverberate around the world for years. Trump’s victory dealt a decisive blow to equity and the rule of law. It also puts the future of democracy in doubt and augurs what may prove to be irreversible planetary harm.

The last presidential election was a defining moment, not just for the US but in the history of the world. The choice Americans made in 2024 will haunt them for generations.

Republicans’ opposition to Trump

“Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud… He’s playing the American public for suckers.”

It is important to point out that many saw Trump for what he is. Before he was elected the first time, Republicans lined up to oppose his presidential bid. In 2020 Trump was rejected as unfit to be president by more than 500 national security experts, as well as veterans organizations and conservative groups. Both the New England Journal of Medicine and Scientific American took the unprecedented step of urging voters to reject Trump.

In 2024, more than 740 former high-ranking national security officials said he was unfit to serve as president. Over 500 alumni and officials associated with former Republican presidents or presidential nominees endorsed his opponent, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Many of those who worked with Trump also opposed his presidential bid in 2024, including half of his cabinet secretaries and his former Vice President, Mike Pence. More than two dozen White House officials who served during the Trump administration publicly stated they would not endorse him. He also faced opposition from past and present Republican governors, Senators, and House members, as well as a wide range of officials at the state and local level. No president running for office has ever faced as much opposition from within his party, so how did Trump manage to win a second term?

The question in context: What Trump’s win says about America

“Trump is a predator with a deformed character, brittle ego and absolute incapacity to see the world beyond the edge of his interests and money, this obscenity may seem normal to him, but that doesn’t make it so.”

How did a deceitful, twice impeached, convicted criminal, who was deemed “psychologically unfit” for office, manage to convince most Americans to vote for him in 2024? What made them overlook his mismanagement of the COVID pandemic and his willful disregard for environmental protections that keep Americans safe? Why were they not deterred by his authoritarian tendencies that threaten both personal freedoms and the rule of law?

How did Americans overlook his corruption, his lies, and his sheer incompetence? How could people forget his assaults on the international order that has kept the peace for more than 70 years? Why did Americans embrace his eradication of reproductive rights that resulted in spiking maternal mortality? How could they countenance his draconian immigration policies that separated young children from their parents? Why did they overlook the fact that he killed an immigration bill so that he could exploit the border security issue for his political gain?

What made Americans believe that they could get cogent economic leadership from a man who has declared bankruptcy six times? Why would anyone think that a convicted fraudster, who has a decades-long track record of grift, could offer sound economic stewardship?

Andrew Coyne reflected on why Americans voted for Trump, writing, “Nothing mattered, in the end.” Voters were not deterred by his unfathomable ignorance, emotional incontinence, hate-filled campaign, and ludicrously unworkable anti-policies. Despite being a convicted fraud artist, adjudicated rapist and serial sexual predator, “Americans took a long look at all this and said, yes please.”

Understanding Trump supporters

“Trump is a stupid man’s idea of a smart man, a poor man’s idea of a rich man, and a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

To comprehend why Trump won, we need to understand who supported him and how their mindsets led them to vote against their own interests.  Big money is a salient part of the reason Trump emerged victorious in 2024.  The fossil fuel industry was the largest corporate sector donor, giving $75 million to Trump’s PACs and $445 million to influence the outcome of the election. The biggest individual donor was Elon Musk, who contributed $250 million to Trump’s campaign.

The disinformation sponsored by these monied interests is only part of the story. As difficult as it might be for some to fathom, a broad spectrum of Americans passionately supports Trump. His hate-filled politics appeal to a broad swath of people who are struggling to adapt to a rapidly changing world. A significant share of voters felt frustrated by a lack of economic opportunities, high inflation, low wages, and increasing housing costs.

A demographic breakdown reveals that the core of Trump’s support comes from less-educated, rural, white men. These voters are disaffected by shifting social norms and by the politics of inclusion. They romanticize a past in which white men enjoyed unchallenged power. Trump also made gains with Latino and Black male voters, driven largely by economic concerns and social conservatism. Trump’s brand of masculinity appeals to men of all ethnicities, especially young and non‑college men.

Trump’s crass disposition vindicates the basest elements of what these men are feeling. He also gives them a target upon which to project their animus and vent their rage.  Trump encourages xenophobia, racism, and misogyny while weakening democracy. To serve this agenda, he sows division, frays the ties that bind us together, and unravels the social fabric.

Trump is a billionaire, but he positions himself as an anti-elite outsider who is fighting establishment failures in government, the media, and academia. He has succeeded in convincing economically disadvantaged men that he is their champion–that he will somehow make their lives better. Trump’s distrust of political elites resonated with voters disillusioned by mainstream politicians. These voters had no idea they were being manipulated, nor did they realize that their hatreds were exploited to serve the interests of the 1%.

Trump’s use of fear to manipulate voters

“Fear is Trump’s oxygen. He survives by making Americans terrified — of immigrants, Muslims, the media, liberals, Black Lives Matter — you name it.”

Trump voters are disaffected people who are angry with the rapidly changing world around them.  Trump won over these voters by ginning up fear with what the RAND corporation called a “firehose of falsehoods” disinformation strategy.  

Trump makes people feel insecure, and this goes a long way in explaining his success with voters. Trump enflames fear to make people feel threatened. In 2024, nearly 90% of Trump voters believed America’s values and economic future were under attack. Trump fabricates crises and then claims he is the only one who can make Americans safer. When people are afraid, they seek stability, and Trump cynically pretends to offer solutions. What most did not realize is that Trump is fomenting and disseminating these narratives for political gain.

Using fear to secure or maintain political power is a time-tested strategy. Politicians and regimes often amplify real or imagined threats to justify their actions, consolidate authority, or rally public support. Adolf Hitler used the fear of Jews and communists to consolidate power in the 1930s. In the US, politicians amplified fears of communist infiltration during the Red Scare that started in 1917 and culminated in McCarthyism during the early 50s.

The psychology of Trump voters

“Many Trump supporters score high on right-wing authoritarianism — they’re drawn to strong leaders, hostile to outsiders, and obedient to authority when it promises to restore order.”

There are other commonly used psychological reasons why people fall prey to Trump’s subterfuge.  Trump’s binary framing using rhetoric chalked full of absolutes, has swayed voters by increasing tribalism and reinforcing ingroup identity.

Psychologist Eric Fromm provides another framework that may help us to understand Trump voters. As Fromm explained, many people find freedom deeply unsettling, and they prefer being told what to think rather than thinking for themselves.

Steve Schmidt offered a far less sanguine perspective, calling support for Trump a “disease of the mind,” adding, “there are far too many Americans walking around with a frightening gleam in their eyes. These are the people who have become excited and enthralled around the idea of smashing and burning everything they see so it can be great. What I am describing is a human sickness.”

Voters’ brains appear to have been short-circuited by Trump. Research in neuroscience explains why Trump supporters lack insight into the accuracy of their views, why they are less likely to consider alternative perspectives, and are prone to violence.

Voter’s capacity for critical thought, reason, and logic has been circumvented by what they see as strong leadership. They welcome Trump’s “father‑figure” authoritarianism, which they see as unapologetic and assertive. His demagoguery resonated with voters who felt insecure about their national identity and their safety. This hypothesis is born out by research that shows Trump voters score higher on authoritarianism and social‑dominance orientation scales, indicating a preference for strong authority and in‑group hierarchy.

Trump’s disinformation distorts reality

“The less talent they have, the more pride, vanity, and arrogance they have. All these fools, however, find other fools who applaud them.”

Trump’s greatest achievement is his subversion of the facts in the minds of most American voters. He has emboldened a cadre of intellectually dishonest actors to help him distort reality.

As explained by Fred Wertheimer, the long list of those spewing Trump’s lies and disinformation includes media sources like Fox News and Newsmax, as well as influential figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Elon Musk, and Joe Rogan. Wertheimer wrote that Trump’s relentless falsehoods, have “distorted reality, [and] eroded the public trust.” As Al Gore said, the Trump administration is “trying to create their own preferred version of reality”.

Despite being divorced from the facts, Trump’s counternarratives have traction. The January 6 insurrection is a case in point. As summarized by Freedom House: “The assault on the US Capitol was the culmination of a months-long campaign by outgoing president Donald Trump to cast Joe Biden’s victory as illegitimate and fraudulent.” Trump has managed to get people to parrot his election lies, as part of “a well-organized effort to block the certification of election results that involved dozens of state and local officials from the Republican Party”.

American decline

“Watch how a republic dies in the empty eyes of an empty man who feels nothing but his own imaginary greatness, and who cannot find in himself the decency simply to shut the fuck up even when it is in his best interest to do so. Presidents don’t have to be heroes to be good presidents. They just have to realize that their humanity is our common humanity, and that their political commonwealth is our political commonwealth, too.”

Trump won in 2024 because of the complex constellation of psychological factors at play.  In their pursuit of security, Americans embraced what they construe as a strong leader. They prioritized economic stability over moral decency.  Men cleaved to the masculine identity that Trump provides. Voters liked what they saw as his emotional authenticity, and they lauded his transactional approach to governance. They bought into his populist “us vs them” framing and narratives that deepen their loyalty to Trump while eroding trust in American institutions.

As we explore the reasons why people voted for Trump, we are led to the disturbing conclusion that Americans are unable to distinguish fact from fiction. American voters have succumbed to the thrall of a manipulative grifter.  The election of 2024 laid bare the intellectual, emotional, and moral health of Americans. The US is under the control of a malignant narcissist, and as Coyne wrote, we should not expect most Americans to come to their senses any time soon.