Societal collapse may be the wake-up call we need to stave off extinction. The ongoing failure to respond to the maelstrom of interrelated crises is moving us ever closer to a dystopian nightmare. While this may seem like hyperbole, the historical record reveals that societal collapse occurs with predictable regularity. The same is true of global extinction events in geological timescales.
Global polycrisis: Climate change, ecological disasters, economic crises, and social dysfunction
“The polycrisis …presents a challenge that overwhelms our ability to comprehend, let alone respond. It’s as though the very systems that could offer solutions are the ones that are broken.”
~Naomi Klein, writer, and activist
The future of humanity and all life on Earth is imperiled by the interacting cluster of dysfunctional economics, biophysical degradation, cynical politics, technological manipulation, and social dysfunction. This combination of crises is comprehensively referred to as the global polycrisis. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “We are in the fight of our lives, and we are losing”.
After centuries of destructive human activities, the fault lines are becoming increasingly apparent. We are systematically destroying the natural world and dismantling the Earth’s interrelated ecosystems. This is abundantly apparent in the rate at which we are transgressing planetary boundaries. The combination of heat, extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and species extinctions, underscore the point. Forests are burning, deserts are expanding and clean water is becoming increasingly scarce. The oceans are being subjected to the triple threat of acidification, warming, and anoxia. Coral reefs are dying and fisheries are collapsing. Sea ice is melting, and sea levels are rising.
The preoccupation with growth inherent in the economics of neoliberal globalism is driving environmental destruction and unraveling the social fabric. Rapid economic and social changes have undermined the collective sense of meaning, purpose, and identity that once used to unite societies. This makes people vulnerable to exploitation by those who seek to exacerbate divisions and fan the flames of conflict.
Nefarious actors are using technology to advance their agendas and politicians are exacerbating the problems as part of their cynical pursuit of power. They use AI and digital technology to promote xenophobia and fuel hatred for a fabricated enemy. The goal is to control popular narratives and influence electoral outcomes. Their strategically targeted campaigns of disinformation known as big nudging, exponentially increase their ability to manipulate public perceptions and behavior.
Authoritarian political movements are recycling the age-old strategy of divide and conquer. As explained by the Power Shift Network, they are trying to break down the unity between groups struggling for justice to maintain the status quo.
Complex coalescing crises
“The crises we face are no longer isolated; they are colliding and compounding, creating a perfect storm of interconnected challenges that amplify one another in ways we can no longer ignore.”
~ Amitav Ghosh
Crises interact in many ways and this can have significant downstream impacts. There are linear relationships such as we see in climate change-induced extreme weather events that destroy crops and contribute to both food insecurity and starvation. Non-linear interactions involve constellations of entangled factors.
A simplified rendition of a slightly more complex dynamic is apparent in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The war contributed to a spike in energy prices and inflation which exacerbated inequality and further frayed the social fabric which in turn fueled illiberal politics. This, in turn, is contributing to the rise of authoritarianism.
The synergistic interactions between crises can be very complex. They co-occur, merge, and amplify one another, often coming together to form cascading assemblages and feedback loops. A wide range of biophysical issues interact with multiple social crises in self-reinforcing often vicious cycles. In the absence of a concerted effort, societal collapse is an inevitable corollary of these interacting crises.
Historical collapse
“[A] brief overview of collapses demonstrates not only the ubiquity of the phenomenon but also the extent to which advanced, complex, and powerful societies are susceptible to collapse.”
~ NASA study
The collapse of long-standing cultures and civilizations has occurred with predictable regularity throughout history. A meta-analysis of the data reveals that since the dawn of the common era, major civilizations have collapsed every couple of hundred years (196 years on average).
Climatic changes and environmental degradation are defining features of historical collapses. Other factors that contribute to collapse include natural disasters, foreign invasions, mass migration, famine, economic depression, internal strife, and disease outbreaks.
According to a study by Kathleen Florita published by Pepperdine, environmental factors ultimately determine the course of society. Climate change (primarily drought) combined with political disarray have contributed to the collapse of many civilizations including the Egyptian Old Kingdom (4200 BP), Akkadians (2154 BP), the Roman Empire (476 AD), the Mayan (800-1000 AD), the Tiwanaku (800-1200 AD), Anasazi (1275-1300 AD), Angkor (1400 AD).
A 2014 study, sponsored by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, examined the collapse of the Mesopotamian Empire (100 AD), the Han Empire (220 AD), the Mauryan Empire (180 AD), and the Gupta Empire (550 AD). The authors of this study concluded that collapse is caused by exceeding the ecological carrying capacity of the Earth and increasing inequality.
Contemporary collapse
“Every civilization carries the seeds of its own destruction, and the same cycle shows in them all. The Republic is born, flourishes, decays into plutocracy, and is captured by the shoemaker whom the mercenaries and millionaires make into a king. The people invent their oppressors, and the oppressors serve the function for which they are invented.”
~Mark Twain, The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today
The maelstrom of coalescing crises makes societal collapse inevitable if we do not deviate from the current trajectory. Although most don’t realize it, we are on the cusp of the end of civilization.
According to Luke Kemp, a researcher who has studied the fall of historic civilizations, collapse is a tipping point phenomenon when compounding stressors overrun societal coping capacity. Collapse occurs when public services crumble and disorder ensues as the government loses control. The 8 billion people alive today depend on technological society and they are at risk if it breaks down.
Studies warning of a looming collapse are not new. An MIT study in 1972 forecast the collapse of civilization. This report was corroborated by another landmark study by the Club of Rome in 2014. Since then there has been a slew of research predicting the collapse of civilization.
The terrifying truth about climate change is coming into view. Evidence of ecosystem collapse abounds. We are losing both the biotic and abiotic features that sustain life, and this biophysical degradation is causing or exacerbating social dysfunction. The social fabric is being frayed by inequality and democracy is under threat from illiberal politics.
Kemp is among those who think we are facing imminent collapse. In a BBC article, he explains that in addition to climate change, environmental degradation, and inequality, we also see evidence of other defining features of collapse including the loss of identity, socio-economic complexity, oligarchy, social disintegration, and external shocks (war, natural disasters, famine, plagues, and epidemics). As TE Trainer wrote, “It is difficult to doubt that, as many are saying, we are heading for extreme global system breakdown.”
Mass extinctions
“Mass extinctions, while tragic, also serve as catalysts for new beginnings. They clear the ecological slate, allowing life to evolve in radically new directions.”
~Stephen Jay Gould, paleontologist
When we plot mass extinctions on Earth, we can see the development of life has been punctuated by five large-scale extinction events. While civilizations collapse every couple of centuries, major extinction-level events occur on average once every 88.6 million years. All of these events suggest that drastic climatic changes play a salient role.
We are currently in what biologists call the 6th great extinction which is also defined by climate change. According to the WWF, we have seen a 73 percent decline in wildlife populations in the last half-century. The 6th great extinction is unique because rather than being the result of volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts, it is caused by human activity.
Life’s fragile balance
“The balance of nature is not a luxury, but a necessity. Life thrives on the fragile thread of equilibrium, and a small disruption can send the system into chaos.”
~David Attenborough, broadcaster, biologist, natural historian, and writer
Both temperature and levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) must stay within narrow tolerances to sustain life. Research suggests that high levels of CO2 may have extinguished life on planets throughout the universe. Earth inhabits the Goldilocks zone, which refers to the distance between the Earth and the Sun. This is what gives a planet a temperate climate. There needs to be just the right temperature to sustain life, neither too hot nor too cold.
There is also a type of ‘Goldilocks zone’ for concentrations of CO2. The heat-trapping properties of atmospheric carbon create the greenhouse effect and depending on the luminosity of a planet’s star(s), too much CO2 will make a planet too hot to support life, too little and it will be too cold. CO2 played a pivotal role in the regulation of surface temperatures as life was developing on Earth. Four billion years ago atmospheric carbon trapped the heat from a sun that was 70 percent less luminous than it is today. The relatively high concentration of CO2 allowed the Earth to warm sufficiently to sustain life.
Now the sun is much more luminous and anthropogenic carbon emissions keep rising to levels not seen in millions of years. The result is that year after year the Earth is getting hotter and ever larger sections of the planet are becoming increasingly uninhabitable. A 2023 study published in Nature Geoscience, concludes a heat-related mass extinction event will end the reign of humans and mammals on Earth.
The right balance of CO2 is fundamental to life and not just because it plays a major role in determining the temperature of a planet. Too much CO2 can be toxic for oxygen-breathing life forms. The Earth recycles carbon through a process of geochemical weathering that traps atmospheric carbon in the rocks and soil. Tectonic plate movements sequester captured carbon and push it deep underground preventing atmospheric levels of CO2 from reaching toxic levels. To sustain life there must be just enough atmospheric carbon to trap sufficient warmth without exceeding respiration thresholds.
On Venus, extremely high levels of atmospheric carbon are too toxic to sustain life, and the average surface temperature approximates 864 F (462 C). One day in the distant future the ever-brightening sun means that Earth will become like Venus, however, anthropogenic GHGs are hastening that future by millions of years.
Ignorance and sadism
“What makes you think human beings are sentient and aware? There’s no evidence for it. Human beings never think for themselves, they find it too uncomfortable. For the most part, members of our species simply repeat what they are told and become upset if they are exposed to any different view. The characteristic human trait is not awareness but conformity…at a time when our behavior may well lead us to extinction, I see no reason to assume we have any awareness at all. We are stubborn, self-destructive conformists. Any other view of our species is just a self-congratulatory delusion.”
~Michael Crichton, The Lost World
Human activities are systematically destroying the natural world and dismantling the ecosystems that support life on this planet. In just over 50 years humans have altered 3.8 billion years of evolution. People have not come to terms with the destructive impact of human activities.
It is not just amorality and the failure to understand the issues, humans are also cruel. Politics is rife with hateful rhetoric and the social discourse has been coopted by digital technology whose algorithms promote mean-spiritedness. As Chris Hedges explains in his book, Empire of Illusion: The End of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle:
“Sadism dominates the culture. It runs like an electric current through reality television and trash-talk programs, is at the core of pornography, and fuels the compliant, corporate collective. Corporatism is about crushing the capacity for moral choice and diminishing the individual…This hypermasculinity has its logical fruition in…our lack of compassion…We accept the system handed to us and seek to find a comfortable place within it. We retreat into the narrow, confined ghettos created for us and shut our eyes to the deadly superstructure of the corporate state.”
Facing injustice
“This is the time for resilience, perseverance, solidarity, and systems thinking…our work is not done. So even now – especially now – I invite you to Be An Optimist.”
~Wayne Visser, author, and professor of regenerative business
This is a dark time for America and the world. For corporatist leaders like Donald Trump, cruelty is the point. He is the personification of the sadism referenced by Hedges. Trump undermines the rule of law and runs roughshod over nature while shredding the social fabric.
However, all is not lost, there are constitutional limits to what Trump can do. American presidents are subject to an institutional system with checks and balances. Try as he may, Trump is constrained by the Constitution and there is no easy way to disentangle the US from the international system. There are global trends like clean energy that cannot be undone regardless of who is president. Pushback will come from Republican leaders across the country who do not want to completely relinquish their authority or end the benefits they are receiving from progressive legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act.
While the results of the 2024 American election are a crushing defeat for those who seek justice, the struggle continues. It would be easy to give up, this is what authoritarian leaders want us to do. They create chaos because they want people to disengage, abandon their values, and be acquiescent. This is precisely what we must not do. “We are a movement, not an election campaign,” Visser wrote, adding “Our fight for social justice and nature regeneration is a longer effort. We lost a battle, not the war.”
There are more compelling reasons than ever for us to work together on a range of interrelated issues. Visser explains that complex living systems like societies self-organize, and leadership is distributed. He councils us to be the voice of reason and keep working on solutions. We must find justice leaders where they exist and join with others in solidarity.
Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere
“First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
~Martin Niemöller, German theologian
Trying to keep a low profile to avoid antagonizing the advocates of injustice is not a solution. As explained by Plato almost two thousand five hundred years ago, “Justice will only exist when those who are not injured by injustice are as outraged by it as those who are.” When a single group or individual is threatened, the stability and safety of the larger community are also under threat. True security is only achieved when everyone’s rights and safety are upheld.
Remaining silent when the rights and freedoms of one group are threatened, ultimately jeopardizes the rights of everyone. If we turn a blind eye to the persecution of one group, no one is truly safe. As Martin Luther King famously said, “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere”.
The fate of humanity is intertwined and as such people have a collective responsibility to each other. When one group suffers from injustice, we all suffer. The well-being of each individual directly impacts the well-being of others, and the more people embrace empathy and understanding, the safer and stronger everyone becomes.
Doubling down on justice
“I allow myself to hope that the world will emerge from its present troubles, that it will one day learn to give the direction of its affairs, not to cruel swindlers and scoundrels, but to men possessed of wisdom and courage. Do not say this is impossible. It is not impossible. I do not say it can be done tomorrow, but I do say that it could be done within a thousand years if only men would bend their minds to the achievement of the kind of happiness that should be distinctive of man.”
~ Bertrand Russell, philosopher and mathematician
The failure of humanity to address multiple crises has grave consequences, and so does the outcome of the 2024 election in the US. Doubling down on justice is an effective way of managing anxiety and grief. Cruelty and ignorance abound, but there are also many passionate advocates of justice. These are the people who help bend the teleological arc of human existence toward something better. So, it is up to us to keep fighting the good fight.
We should not abandon the pursuit of justice because the majority rejects it. Consider the suffragists and those who fought for civil rights, these brave souls did not give up on justice in the face of popular opposition, and nor should we. We cannot afford to be deterred because everything is in the balance.
Resignation is not an option. As writer, historian, and activist Rebecca Solnit pointed out, despair is a luxury we don’t have. We have a duty to be there for those in need, and an obligation to speak up for those blameless souls yet to be born. It is folly to console ourselves by saying that others will do the work, it is incumbent on each one of us to defend freedom and the natural world on which we all depend.
We have reason to despair, but we are not defeated unless we give up. Setbacks may seem insurmountable, and tyrants may seem invincible, but in the end, obstacles give way and autocrats fall. While it may be difficult to countenance, losing is an inevitable part of the journey that weaves its way to victory. Despite rampant ignorance and cruelty, history gives us reason to believe that if we persevere, we will overcome.
Hope in the face of despair
“TO BE HOPEFUL in bad times is not just foolishly romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is a history not only of cruelty, but also of compassion, sacrifice, courage, kindness. What we choose to emphasize in this complex history will determine our lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity to do something. If we remember those times and places—and there are so many—where people have behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act, and at least the possibility of sending this spinning top of a world in a different direction. And if we do act, in however small a way, we don’t have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as we think human beings should live, in defiance of all that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory.”
~Howard Zinn, You Can’t Be Neutral on a Moving Train
There is understandable doubt, but there is also a deep-seated need for hope. We need to believe that change is possible, succumbing to pessimism is the surest way of making progress impossible. It is in this sense that hope is a visioning strategy.
Noam Chomsky put it this way: “If you assume that there is no hope, you guarantee that there will be no hope. If you assume that there is an instinct for freedom, that there are opportunities to change things, then there is a possibility that you can contribute to making a better world.”
Numerous studies support the pragmatic utility of hope and a positive vision to mobilize action. Matthew Hoffmann, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Environmental Governance Lab at the University of Toronto, explored the importance of maintaining a “sense of possibility”. Hoffman’s research concluded that there are practical benefits associated with making a conscious commitment to positivity.
Being hopeful is not always easy but as Harriet Bulkeley from the University of Durham, explained, ‘hope is a practice.’ Nagasaki atomic blast survivor Setsuko Thurlow tells us to keep striving for the light, adding “if you love this planet…go forth and change the world.”
Unshakable optimism as we teeter on the cusp of an apocalypse
Be an optimist not because the future is bright, but because bright people are working to make the future better. Be an optimist, not because the news is good, but because good people are showing that change is always possible. Be an optimist, not because the world is fair, but because fair people are fighting for justice wherever it is needed.
~Wayne Visser
Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist from the University of California, understands that the situation we face is dire, but she refuses to give in to pessimism. She has made a conscious decision to be willfully hopeful about the prospects for the future. University of British Columbia scholar Peter Dauvergne described it as being “intentionally optimistic.”
How we imagine the future is critical. As explained by Solomon, “the climate-stable, ecologically-vibrant future needs to have space to be imagined as a joyful one, not an apocalyptic one, even though we know there is strife and grief and loss and upheaval.”
No matter how bad things get, optimism is essential. Even societal collapse can be framed as a necessary forerunner of something better. Collapse is an opportunity to change, but it is also a vacuum. Optimism allows us to imagine something better, while pessimism is more likely to augur something worse.
Destruction precedes creation
“Any disaster you can survive is an improvement in your character, your stature, and your life…the moments which seemed to be great failures followed by wreckage were the incidents that shaped the life you have now…The crisis throws you back, and when you are required to exhibit strength, it comes.”
~Joseph Campbell
Destruction is a necessary precursor to creation. The fall of the old order is an opportunity to address the deeply entrenched causes of the crises we face. As Pablo Picasso is alleged to have said, “Every act of creation is first an act of destruction”.
Systems are broken, they have not responded at a scale commensurate with the challenges. It may be that the destruction of these systems is the only way we can make space for solutions.
The current economic, social, political, and technological configuration is inherently unsustainable, so collapse may be a necessary precondition to create something better. Collapse can be a catalyst that forces us to come together and exhibit the wisdom, courage, and common sense we need to face the threats we have ignored for decades.
Rebuilding a sustainable future together
“In a world besieged by complexity and uncertainty, unity and collaboration are our greatest assets. By uniting the intellectual finesse of the Mindful Mavericks with the practical ingenuity of the Pragmatic Pioneers, we can unlock new possibilities and chart a course toward a brighter tomorrow. We hope you join us soon as we embark on this collective journey to tackle the Polycrisis and shape a future defined by resilience, innovation, and hope.”
~Jacques van Wyk, transdisciplinary thinker and futurist
While societal collapse is highly destructive, it is an opportunity to rebuild, and this we must do together. The connection between us is essential. Humans are social creatures and this predisposition, rooted in human biology, has immense survival value.
To survive we must learn to live in harmony with each other and nature. This is not an ideological interpretation of history this is a pragmatic approach to survival.
Despite the rampant political divisions that define the contemporary landscape, Visser reminds us that ‘the greater trend is towards integration and connection’. According to Solomon, banding together is the most impactful single thing we can do to augur change.
We must learn to identify disinformation that divides us and resist those who use polarization as a means of social control. One of the ways we can do this is by coming together around issues of common concern. This will help us to appreciate the critical importance of cooperation, internationalism, and multilateralism as both a practical approach to the myriad crises we face and as a bulwark against the forces of division.
Averting collapse or at least human extinction
“The current trajectory we are on is both utterly devastating and utterly avoidable.”
~Julia Steinberger, Professor of Ecological Economics
Unlike many ancient civilizations, we can anticipate what is coming. That means we have an opportunity to respond. There is still time, but the window of opportunity to act is getting ever smaller. There are things we can do to expedite the process like applying systems thinking and artificial intelligence to help us to unravel the complexity of the polycrisis and find efficient solutions.
We must choose to engage in earnest but as Florita points out, we have yet to make that choice. “[The] response to environmental problems lies completely with the control of a society,” Florita wrote, adding, “Fate is not pre-determined, and societies are not destined to fail, but at the same time, they have to choose to succeed.”
Failing to act in the face of such threats is suicide. Historian Arnold Toynbee studied the rise and fall of civilizations, and he concluded that great civilizations are not murdered, they take their own lives. We have a chance to save much of the diverse array of flora and fauna that make up the Earth’s biodiversity. Preserving and restoring the natural world is not selfless altruism. In the process of saving nature, we may also save ourselves. Or maybe we won’t.
“It doesn’t have to be like this” British economist, consultant, and author Umair Haque, wrote, adding, “And yet it is. Maybe, then, it always did have to be like this. Maybe this is the only way. We have to fail so they can learn. I take consolation, I suppose, in the fact that the next civilization will be —will have to be — wiser, gentler, truer, better than us.”
Societies collapse but some like the Chinese have transformed and recovered. If we get serious about rapid and pervasive change, the Earth can heal itself and as Fareed Zakaria points out in his latest book, Age of Revolutions, civilizations can also heal themselves. Collapse is devastating, but it may finally force us to address the polycrisis and this may be the only way we can stave off human extinction.
Related
Discover more from Change Oracle
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
About The Author
