Tesla Is Set To Report Deliveries Wednesday. Here’s What To Expect.

Tesla (TSLA) is widely expected to report quarterly delivery numbers on Wednesday morning, with analysts anticipating another double-digit decline year-over-year.

The company is projected to post deliveries of just under 400,000 vehicles for the second quarter, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. That would be down 10% from the same time a year ago, when Tesla reported north of 440,000 deliveries, while production is forecast to increase to about 434,200 vehicles from 410,831 in the year-ago quarter.

Demand for Tesla’s vehicles has taken a hit this year in key markets like the U.S. and Europe amid a political backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration. The company’s first-quarter deliveries fell well below estimates.

The latest deliveries data also comes days after the departure of Omead Afshar, who oversaw Tesla’s sales and manufacturing in North America and Europe, and became the latest in a string of executive departures, Bloomberg reported.

Some Analysts Suggest Deliveries Could Bottom in Q2 Amid Wait for More Affordable Model

Analysts from Deepwater Asset Management said in a recent report that they expect the second quarter could be the low point for Tesla’s delivery numbers, with a recovery likely in the second half of the year, citing improving brand perception among other things.

Analysts from RBC Capital Markets on Thursday forecast about 366,000 deliveries, below the Street consensus, suggesting demand could be delayed with some consumers waiting for the more affordable model Musk has said would launch in the first half of this year.

Baird analysts, who said the more affordable model may be delayed, told clients Wednesday that “while deliveries still remain an important piece of the fundamentals, we note that the recent launch of robotaxi and excitement regarding this opportunity will likely take precedence in the near term.”

Tesla’s stock has divided analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, with 10 “buy” ratings compared to four “hold,” and four “sell” ratings. Their price targets range from $160 to $500, with an average near $306, below the stock’s recent levels. The shares have lost about a fifth of their value in 2025 so far, at just over $323 as of Friday’s close.